03 September 2026 – The international order is undergoing profound change. The war in Ukraine, China’s growing geopolitical ambitions, the United States’ changing trade policy and Europe’s strategic realignment are already having a direct impact on businesses and their supply chains. In this interview with System Alliance Europe, Dr. Thomas Steinmüller explains what these developments mean for the logistics industry.
Dr. Steinmüller, you describe geopolitics as a new driver of logistics. Why is that?
Because the global economic landscape has fundamentally changed. For decades, companies could rely on relatively stable international trade relations, increasingly integrated markets and ever more efficient global supply chains. Those assumptions can no longer be taken for granted. Russia, China, the United States and Europe are all reassessing their strategic priorities. Trade conflicts, sanctions, tariffs, new political alliances and security considerations are increasingly shaping business decisions. For companies, this means that geopolitical risks are no longer an exceptional scenario. They have become part of everyday risk management – and, consequently, part of logistics strategy.
What does this mean for supply chains in practical terms?
Logistics now has to operate in a world that is far less predictable. International maritime transport is a case in point. When key shipping routes cannot be used safely, transit times can increase significantly. At the same time, costs, capacity requirements and the amount of capital tied up in inventory all rise. On top of this, companies are facing trade barriers and the growing strategic importance of supply chains. They are asking themselves much more fundamental questions: Where should we manufacture? Where should we source? Which countries and suppliers are we dependent on? Increasingly, the answer is: We need to diversify.
Does this mean moving away from globalization?
No. Globalization is not going away. But it is changing. The question going forward is less likely to be: How can we source and manufacture worldwide at the lowest possible cost? The more important question is: How can we structure global value chains so that they continue to function even when political or economic disruptions occur? This is why we are seeing more nearshoring and friendshoring, greater regional diversification and the development of alternative sources of supply. Globalization is becoming more resilient.
FROM JUST-IN-TIME TO JUST-IN-CASE
What does this mean for the traditional “Just-in-Time” logistics strategy?
Just-in-Time is losing some of its importance, particularly where supply security is critical. For decades, the goal was to minimize inventory wherever possible. Today, we are seeing a countertrend: Just-in-Case. Companies are rebuilding safety stocks and, in some cases, distributing them across multiple locations. For critical components in particular, holding additional inventory can make sound economic sense if it helps prevent a production stoppage. This is also changing the role of logistics. Warehousing is no longer simply a matter of efficiency. It is increasingly becoming a matter of resilience.
Does this also increase the importance of European logistics networks?
Absolutely. In an increasingly volatile world, having robust alternatives and a strong regional network is becoming more important than ever. A Europe-wide network can, for example, enable companies to manage transport flows more flexibly, draw on local market expertise and respond more quickly to changing conditions. This is particularly relevant in groupage freight, where the strength of the network lies not in a single transport route, but in the interaction of numerous connections. The real advantage comes from combining local expertise with international reach.
Is this a competitive advantage for SME-driven networks such as System Alliance Europe?
Yes. Small and medium-sized, owner-managed companies often combine strong regional expertise with short decision-making processes. When these strengths are connected through a European network, they create a compelling combination: local proximity and European reach. That is particularly valuable in an environment where flexibility is becoming just as important as economies of scale.
What role does digitalization play in all of this?
An increasingly important one. As supply chains become more complex and volatile, simply having visibility into their current status is no longer enough. Companies need to identify risks as early as possible and be able to respond quickly. Artificial intelligence will play an important role here. AI systems can analyze vast amounts of data, identify potential risks and increasingly provide recommendations for action or suggest alternative transport options. At the same time, however, digitalization creates new risks. The more interconnected logistics processes become digitally, the more critical cybersecurity will be.
Is this development also affecting logistics real estate?
Yes. As companies hold more inventory and organize their supply chains on a more regional basis, demand for strategically located warehouse facilities is increasing.
At the same time, the properties themselves are evolving. Automation, robotics, photovoltaic systems, battery storage and charging infrastructure are transforming the traditional warehouse into a multifunctional infrastructure hub. The logistics facility of the future will therefore be more than a place for storage and transshipment. It may also generate, store and supply energy – and, in doing so, become part of a company’s supply security.
In your view, what is the most important consequence for the logistics industry?
We need to move away from the assumption that maximum efficiency automatically delivers the best outcome. In a stable world, it made sense to continuously optimize processes, minimize inventory and eliminate every avoidable redundancy from supply chains. In a less stable world, however, that very redundancy can create value. The key question is therefore increasingly: How quickly and reliably can we respond to a disruption?
What does this mean for the years ahead?
Logistics will not become less international. But it will be organized differently: more diversified, more digital and more resilient. Companies will need to monitor geopolitical developments just as closely as prices, demand and capacity. And logistics networks will need to translate these developments into concrete options for action. The logistics of the future will therefore do more than simply move goods. Increasingly, it will determine how well companies can remain agile and resilient in an uncertain world.
Dr. Steinmüller, thank you very much for the interview.
About Dr. Thomas Steinmüller A sought-after consultant and keynote speaker, Dr. Thomas Steinmüller is the international representative of the French industry association Afilog and CEO of CapTen AG. He is widely regarded as an expert on the international logistics industry. His work focuses on the impact of technological and geopolitical change on logistics.
